Adapted by:
John Tones
WriterI've been writing about culture for twenty-something years and, at Xataka, I cover everything related to movies, video games, TV shows, comics, and pop culture.
Karen Alfaro
WriterCommunications professional with a decade of experience as a copywriter, proofreader, and editor. As a travel and science journalist, I've collaborated with several print and digital outlets around the world. I'm passionate about culture, music, food, history, and innovative technologies.
It makes perfect sense to discuss and analyze when shows decline, why they don’t last forever, and what methods exist to anticipate the tragic moment when your favorite series stops being what it once was. After all, people spend a lot of time watching television—hours and hours of their free time. And when a show stops working for them, they search for another, hoping it will captivate them again. Sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn’t.
Data journalist Daniel Parris’ Star Significant newsletter tackles questions like these by analyzing thousands of data points from multiple databases. Here are some examples: When do we stop finding new music? Which old movies stand the test of time? Are more celebrities dying? Most importantly, do people actually hate Coldplay? (In this case, I can speak for myself—no statistics needed.)
Among these pressing questions that statistics can help answer (according to a passionate statistics enthusiast—but that’s another debate) is this: How many episodes should you watch before quitting a TV show? Before going any further, it’s important to acknowledge that this data is based on the logical fallacy of assuming IMDb scores are definitive—that a low-rated series or episode is objectively bad. Many variables (review bombing, cult series that defy the good/bad dichotomy, or simply the fact that people are often wrong) cast doubt on this reasoning. But let’s start there.
The Average Score as Canon
For example, Parris’ calculations determine the average score of all episodes in a series. He gives the example of Friends, which has a relatively high average score of 8.34. This is the midpoint of quality: An episode rated higher than this is above average. Lower, and it’s below. Some shows, like Game of Thrones, start at or near this level, while others take time to find their footing. Friends, for instance, doesn’t reach an 8.34 average until its seventh episode.
Parris’ method involves taking all series on IMDb, comparing each episode’s score with this average, and calculating the differential. Most series, he finds, need six or seven episodes to reach their average quality. You can see it clearly in this graph:
Is that too much? Too little? Well, it’s a significant number of hours. Still, Parris overlooks a difficult-to-quantify issue: Later episodes tend to be more engaging simply because that’s how storytelling works. Early episodes set the stage for things to get interesting later. The takeaway? Don’t rely on a statistician for cultural criticism. But let’s continue—after all, as Parris notes, it took Seinfeld 16 episodes to find its rhythm.
How Long Before I Get Tired of It?
But let’s widen the scope: What if we look at seasons? Virtually all series hit a point where interest begins to wane—when they’ve been stretched beyond reason, when everything that could be told has already been told. That’s when audiences encounter recycled plot arcs, humor that falls flat, a decline in originality, cash-grab tactics, and other factors that can diminish a series’ legacy. Once again, the paradigmatic case of Game of Thrones emerges: Often, the ending is what people remember most. Let’s look at this graph:
Again, using the average score as a baseline, most series show a decline between the fifth and sixth seasons. From that point, there’s no turning back. Of course, there are exceptions: in Game of Thrones, the biggest drop in ratings came in season eight. For House of Cards, it was season six. For Star Trek: Discovery, it was season four. These weren’t necessarily the final seasons, but they were the most disappointing. There’s no strict rule, but one near-immutable truth remains: No series can be extended indefinitely.
Can we draw mathematical conclusions from this? Yes and no. It’s reasonable to conclude that no series can last forever, but some—after a sharp decline—manage to recapture some of their early appeal. The best advice from this data? No single rule applies to all shows, but in general, if you notice a decline in quality, stop watching. Very rarely does a series return to the magic of that brilliant eighth episode from season one.
Images | Game of Thrones | Stant Significant
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