One Phenomenon Has Both Economists and K-Pop Fans on Edge in South Korea: The BTS Reunion

BTS, arguably one of the world’s most popular K-pop bands, seemed unstoppable for a while. Its sales reached millions, and it garnered a massive following both in South Korea and internationally. The band rapidly made a name for itself in the music industry, particularly in English-speaking markets.

The group broke numerous barriers, topped the Billboard 200, and even met with then-President Joe Biden at the White House. However, in 2022, everything changed. At the height of its success, the boy band announced a temporary hiatus, prompted by something unrelated to music: military service.

Now that all seven members have fulfilled their military obligations, discussions about their upcoming reunion are underway. There’s one key question at the forefront: What will this mean for K-pop, a billion-dollar cultural industry currently undergoing transformation?

Mandatory military duties. In South Korea, all men ages 18-28 must complete mandatory military service (or engage in social volunteer work) for a period ranging from 18 to 21 months. Exemptions are granted only to athletes, dancers, and young people who have achieved significant awards in their fields, making their country proud.

Unfortunately, K-pop singers don’t qualify for these exemptions. However, a reform passed in 2020 allows them to postpone enlistment until the age of 30. This is why the members of BTS made the unusual decision to announce a hiatus in 2022 to fulfill their military duties. Since the members aren’t all the same age and didn’t enlist simultaneously, the band’s reunion is already projected for 2025.

The date has finally arrived. Kim Seok-jin, better known as “Jin,” is the oldest member of BTS. He enlisted in December 2022 and completed his service in June 2024, allowing him to return to the stage and continue his solo career. Recently, Kim Nam-joon (“RM”), Kim Tae-hyung (“V”), Park Ji-min (“Jimin”), and Jeo Jung-kook (“Jung Kook”) were also discharged. The last member to fulfill his military obligations was Min Yoon-gi, or “Suga.”

According to Nikkei, this means that, barring any surprises, all members will be able to resume their joint activities by July. As expected, this news has generated excitement among the international press and fans alike.

BTS’ agency confirmed to The New York Times that it can’t disclose any plans for a comeback yet. However, this hasn’t stopped fans from celebrating and sharing some information. The Korea Herald recently reported that the group is expected to return to the stage in about nine months, around March 2026. Nikkei hasn’t provided specific details but indicates that the band’s representatives have ruled out a return to performance before 2026.

More than pop music. BTS’ comeback plans have made headlines in major media outlets, including the BBC, CNN, and The New York Times. This underscores that BTS is much more than just a popular music group. Its significance extends beyond the band’s musical success in the West. BTS is a key representative of Hallyu, the “Korean Wave,” which has spread South Korea’s culture, music, and cinema far beyond its borders.

In 2024, Asia Fund Managers cited a survey conducted by the South Korean government. The report revealed that the Hallyu wave has around 225 million fans worldwide–an increase from just 9.26 million reported in its first survey in 2012. The survey further indicated that in 2023, there were more than 1,700 Hallyu fan clubs in 119 countries, with a large percentage (68%) focused on K-pop.

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Culture… and money. Asia Fund Managers highlights that the influence of K-pop extends beyond just the music industry or concert performances. As more people show interest in South Korean groups, there’s a corresponding increase in interest in the country’s culture, language, cuisine, tourism, and fashion. This has a tangible impact on the economy. According to Wion, the global value of exports related to K-pop products and services exceeded $5 billion in 2018, a staggering rise from just $40 million two decades earlier.

While these figures should be taken with caution, they illustrate the immense scale of K-pop as a cultural industry. Some estimates suggest that in 2018, K-pop contributed around 1.7% to South Korea’s GDP. “K-pop has become a significant cultural force, influencing fashion, beauty trends, and even language. This has helped to promote South Korean culture and tourism, leading to increased revenue in these sectors,” expert Falidio Romadhoni explains in a Medium post.

What does BTS signify? A 2022 report published by Korea Science revealed that during its international expansion, the “BTS effect” boosted South Korean consumer goods exports by $1.1 billion. In a 2021 NPR interview, correspondent Stacey Vanek Smith estimated that the boy band contributes hundreds of millions of dollars annually to the South Korean economy. Its impact is somewhat similar to that of Taylor Swift, whose activities generate billions of dollars for the U.S, according to the Federal Reserve.

Is K-pop in crisis? If BTS finally returns to the stage in March 2026, one major question remains: Will the band encounter the same K-pop scene that existed in 2022, when it announced its temporary hiatus?

During this time, some members have pursued solo careers, while their agency has been strategically releasing songs and videos to maintain interest in the group. The K-pop scene also features other prominent acts, such as Blackpink, Seventeen, and NewJeans. However, many have voiced concerns about signs of a crisis in the K-pop industry.

A genre in reinvention. Not everyone agrees that K-pop is in crisis, but the industry is clearly undergoing a transformation that affects both music consumption and its background. One sign of change is the decline in album sales. Nikkei reported that last year, sales dropped by 17%, with exports stagnating and only a minimal increase of 0.5%. This percentage could further decrease if tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump raise the prices of South Korean products.

Additionally, the BBC points out that the industry, its artists, and the audience are all changing. Over the years, numerous musicians and bands have come and gone without new artists reaching the heights of popularity that BTS achieved in their prime. Notably, BTS isn’t the only star taking a break. International sensation Blackpink hasn’t released a new album since September 2022.

Highs and lows. K-pop continues to have a significant impact on streaming plays, which has seen remarkable growth in recent years. Yonhap News Agency recently reported that K-pop plays on Spotify increased significantly between 2014 and 2024. They increased by an astonishing 470 times, resulting in millions of streams. Meanwhile, BTS’ agency managed to boost its annual revenue in 2024, even during the band’s hiatus, although a decrease in operating profit accompanied this.

Another sign of K-pop’s enduring appeal is the excitement surrounding BTS’ upcoming return to the stage. However, not all developments are positive.

Some analysts have expressed concerns that the band may have lost some of its popularity during its extended break. They point to recent K-pop releases that have struggled to achieve the same level of success as hits like Dynamite, the first K-pop song to top the Billboard Hot 100 chart.

There are also concerns that the genre’s focus on internationalization and the shift toward English-language songs may be diminishing its overall impact. The big question remains: Will the newly reformed BTS reach another milestone in the industry?

Images | Disney+ | Public Domain

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