During the Reagan era, the U.S. proposed an ambitious defense plan that could easily inspire an award-winning movie. The initiative was so extensive that the media dubbed it the “Star Wars program” because it resembled a comprehensive space-based defense system. Now, President Donald Trump is reviving a similarly grand idea, albeit in a more terrestrial form.
Copying Israel’s Iron Dome. Specifically, Trump recently signed an executive order to develop a missile defense system akin to Israel’s Iron Dome. The president has cited ballistic threats as a significant danger to national security.
The project is being referred to as “Iron Dome for America,” and the order directs the Pentagon to submit a detailed plan within 60 days. This plan is expected to include accelerated development of hypersonic missiles and the deployment of space-based interceptors.
However, many experts have raised concerns about the feasibility of this proposal. They note that the size and geography of the U.S. make it impractical to replicate a system like Israel’s, which was designed for a much smaller territory and shorter-range threats.
Reviving Star Wars. Trump’s plan seems to echo former President Ronald Reagan’s vision of the Strategic Defense Initiative, commonly known as “Star Wars.” This initiative ended up costing billions of dollars with no tangible results.
The aim was to intercept enemy missiles before they could reach their targets, eliminating the need for nuclear retaliation. However, the program was ultimately canceled in the 1990s due to its technical infeasibility and high costs. Despite this, some concepts from the program have persisted in modern defense systems, such as Ground-Based Midcourse Defense, although its success rate remains limited.
Critics have warned that a nationwide missile shield could be economically unsustainable. Others have pointed out the technical challenges of intercepting missiles launched from multiple directions and platforms, including submarines. The U.S. isn’t on the same level as Israel when it comes to missile defense capabilities.
Incorporating space and new technologies. Trump’s plan also emphasizes the use of space-based interceptors and sensors, left-of-launch defense systems, and directed energy weapons such as lasers. Prominent companies like Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and RTX have expressed interest in the project, highlighting recent advancements in laser defense technology for intercepting cruise missiles.
Threats and strategic challenges. The executive order doesn’t specify which countries are considered threats. However, it’s generally understood that these include familiar adversaries: Russia, China, Iran, and potentially North Korea (the future relationship with Trump in power remains uncertain). These nations have developed increasingly sophisticated arsenals, including hypersonic missiles capable of evading current defenses.
Some in Washington support bolstering missile defense. Experts argue that the current strategy is inadequate in light of these countries’ growing offensive capabilities. The idea is clear: Hypersonic weapons, which have irregular flight patterns and extreme speeds, pose a significant challenge to traditional defensive systems. Additionally, Russia’s considerable nuclear arsenal–around 1,700 deployed warheads–alongside China’s expanding stockpile could potentially overwhelm any missile shield.
Guam as an initial test. As the U.S. keeps developing missile defense strategies, the territory of Guam–a strategic enclave in the Pacific–has made progress in implementing a multilayered defense system. This island, which hosts key military bases, is located 1,800 miles from China and North Korea, nations that have been targeted during military exercises and threats.
In December, the U.S. military successfully intercepted its first ballistic missile from Guam. It utilized the Aegis Guam System, a ground-based system that has proven effective on Navy ships. Moreover, the Army will integrate the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system and Patriot batteries to create a comprehensive 360-degree defensive shield capable of addressing ballistic, hypersonic, and cruise missiles. While this system is advanced, it’ll take at least a decade to complete, highlighting the challenges involved in building a similar shield domestically.
A great uncertainty. At this point, and without specific details from the executive order, there’s a possibility that the Trump administration may choose a gradual rollout. This could involve increasing investment in existing programs rather than developing an entirely new system.
However, discussions about the feasibility and costs of this kind of project are ongoing. There are concerns that a plan of this scope could be economically unfeasible and may not effectively address the growing long-range missile threat. Additionally, the vast size of the U.S. presents challenges in deploying an Iron Dome system.
Image | Anders Sandberg
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