Reports of damaged submarine cables in the Baltic Sea have surfaced in recent months, raising alarm across NATO nations. While early U.S. investigations attributed some incidents to natural wear and inexperience, suspicions of Russian involvement resurfaced after the UK observed suspicious vessel activity. Now, it’s Sweden that has its focus on Russia.
Sweden-Latvia cable targeted. The latest incident involved a new undersea data cable connecting Sweden and Latvia, which apparently suffered significant damage over the weekend. This is the fourth recent incident in the Baltic Sea that’s raising concerns in NATO about the vulnerability of critical infrastructure.
Latvian Prime Minister Evika Siliņa described the damage as “likely caused by an external force,” prompting a criminal investigation.
Ongoing investigations and actions. According to the Financial Times, Latvian authorities identified a suspect vessel near the site of the damage and dispatched a patrol boat to investigate, while two additional ships were under surveillance.
Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson confirmed the damage and emphasized Sweden’s collaboration with Latvia and NATO to address the threat to critical infrastructure. In response to these incidents, NATO launched operation “Baltic Sentry,” deploying drones, submarines, ships, and aircraft to monitor and secure the region. The UK also sent a P-8 Poseidon patrol aircraft to assist.
Background and rising tensions. Recent incidents have raised suspicions of deliberate sabotage by Russian and Chinese vessels. Finland recently intercepted an oil tanker from Russia’s “shadow fleet,” a collection of older vessels registered under jurisdictions like the Cook Islands to avoid sanctions. Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen suggested the cable damage was unlikely to be accidental but refrained from directly blaming Russia.
Other cases include a Chinese ship, New Polar Bear, which dragged an anchor across a gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia, and the Yi Peng 3, a Chinese freighter linked to damage involving two undersea cables. The Yi Peng 3 spent weeks in international waters near Denmark and Sweden, where Chinese investigators boarded the vessel. Swedish inspectors were denied access, drawing criticism from Stockholm.
Geopolitical implications. The timing is critical as Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania prepare to disconnect from the Soviet-era power grid in February and integrate with Europe’s continental energy system—a move viewed as their final step away from Russian influence.
Lithuanian Defense Minister Kęstutis Budrys has called for stricter navigation rules in the Baltic Sea, particularly regarding anchor use, noting the string of incidents is unlikely to be mere accidents.
Repairs and resilience. Unlike pipelines and power lines, which can take months to repair, damaged fiber optic cables are often restored within weeks. The Latvian State Radio and Television Center confirmed it has found alternative routes to maintain communications.
However, the recurring incidents highlight a strategic vulnerability in the Baltic region. NATO has emphasized that any further sabotage will prompt stronger measures to safeguard the region’s critical infrastructure, including energy and communication networks.
Image | NATO
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