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Alba Mora
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2024 hasn’t been a good year for Italians, at least in terms of demographics. While the influx of immigrants has somewhat softened the impact, the country has seen its fertility rate drop to historic lows. Families continue to shrink. The average age of the population is climbing toward 50, and the number of citizens emigrating to seek better opportunities abroad has increased by 36%. This trend is particularly concerning because it deprives Italy of skilled young people, which is already alarming for the country’s central bank.
Italy isn’t the only nation facing the harsh realities of demographic decline, but its situation threatens to turn it into “Europe’s Japan.”
The birth rate is steadily declining. Recently, the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) published an overall demographic assessment for 2024, revealing little cause for optimism and some disappointment. The country ended the year with 370,000 births, which is troubling for two reasons. First, this figure represents a 2.6% decline from 2023, further worsening the downward trend in birth rates. Second, it leaves the fertility rate at an all-time low of 1.18 children per woman, slightly lower than the previous record of 1.19 set in 1995.
A structural problem. The loss of babies in Italy is concerning for ISTAT because it signifies more than just a simple decline in the fertility rate. According to the institute, this issue is connected to the decreasing number of men and women of childbearing age.
“The importance of the structural changes is evident. If we look at the female population of childbearing age (15-49 years), it has decreased from 14.3 million on January 1, 1994, to 11.4 million on January 1, 2025,” ISTAT explains. Similarly, the male population in the same age range has fallen from 14.5 million to just 11.9 million. As such, the current fertility rate of 1.18 is significantly more troubling than that of 1995.
An aging population. Another challenge facing Italy is the aging population, a phenomenon that Eurostat has also highlighted. According to ISTAT, by early 2025, the average age of the population residing in Italy was 46.8 years, a 0.2-year increase from the previous year.
Eurostat’s data presents an even grimmer outlook, estimating the median age to be 48.7 years. This is the second-highest figure in the European Union, surpassed only by Monaco at 50.5 years. The European average is 44.7 years.
In Italy, children under 14 make up 11.9% of the total population, while the working-age population comprises 63.4%. Both of these groups saw declines in 2024. However, the segment of citizens over 65, who constitute 24.7% of the total population, experienced a 0.4% increase compared to the previous year. This group is also seeing a rise in the number of seniors over 80 and 90. If trends continue, some estimates suggest that by 2040, there could be five million fewer individuals in the working-age demographic.
Exodus of Italy’s youth. Italy is currently facing another significant challenge: emigration. In the past year, 191,000 people left the country, representing a 20.5% increase from 2023. Around 156,000 of them were Italians seeking a better life abroad. The remaining 35,000 were expatriates of other nationalities, including Romanians, who had been living in Italy but decided to relocate for several reasons.
Seeking a better life. Analysts suggest that these numbers might be underestimated. Some Italians might have emigrated without officially changing their residence, indicating that the actual numbers could be even higher.
“More and more Italians are choosing to leave for opportunities they believe to be better,” Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera reports. The outlet argues that the current migration trend differs from that of the past decade, when many left due to a lack of employment in Italy. “Today, there are [job opportunities available], but many, particularly young people, are seeking [them] elsewhere”, Corriere della Sera adds.
Creating opportunities. The trend of young people choosing to emigrate is critical. Fabio Panetta, the governor of the Bank of Italy, has called for measures to retain talent and human capital. He recently warned, “Attractive employment opportunities need to be created for the many Italians who leave the country in search of better prospects.”
Between 2014 and 2023, over one million Italians left the country. More than a third of them were young people between the ages of 25 and 35, and many had university degrees. During this same period, far fewer young people made the reverse journey, with only 50,000 returning to Italy. Just a small portion of those had higher education.
ISTAT estimates that the migration balance of young graduates has been negative, resulting in a net loss of 97,000 individuals.
A negative natural balance. In 2024, Italy experienced a negative natural balance, with 370,000 births and 651,000 deaths, resulting in a loss of 281,000 people. This decline was somewhat offset by immigration. Although decreased from the previous year, it accounted for 435,000 arrivals, including around 53,000 repatriates.
This influx helped balance the emigration of Italians to other countries and led to an overall positive migration balance. By the end of the year, Italy’s population stood at about 58.9 million residents.
Japan. Italy’s demographic situation isn’t unique in Europe. For instance, Spain reached a record population of 49.1 million, largely due to an increase in its foreign population, which compensates for the decline in its native population. Diminishing birth rates and an aging population are trends that extend beyond sociology and statistics, directly influencing politics, the economy, and overall well-being.
Meanwhile, Japan serves as a key example of this demographic challenge. After decades of stagnation, the country is now confronting what it refers to as “Problem 2025,” which highlights the socioeconomic challenges posed by a rapidly aging population.
Image | Babak Habibi
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