Adapted by:
Miguel Jorge
WriterJournalist. I've spent more than half of my life writing about technology, science, and culture. Before landing here, I worked at Telefónica, Prisa, Globus Comunicación, Hipertextual, and Gizmodo. I'm part of Webedia's cross-section team.
Alba Mora
WriterAn established tech journalist, I entered the world of consumer tech by chance in 2018. In my writing and translating career, I've also covered a diverse range of topics, including entertainment, travel, science, and the economy.
Simulations play a crucial role in national defense. There are numerous examples. The U.S. and Russia employed a strategic “game” during the Cold War that led to the conclusion that testing nuclear weapons wasn’t worth the risk. In more recent simulations, China has tested its latest destroyer against Washington, while Taiwan has carried out readiness drills.
The United Kingdom also conducted a test aimed at confirming how ready its arsenal is for potential conflict. The outcome wasn’t as expected.
A stark lesson. In 2022, the UK carried out a key strategic simulation. The European country mimicked the exact scenario of the first Russian attack on Ukraine that took place on Feb. 24, 2022. This exercise was conducted using the $32 million Gladiator training system, which aimed to evaluate how British defenses would perform under a similar attack.
The findings were alarming. Air Commodore Blythe Crawford didn’t detail the exact results of the simulation, but described the outcomes as “not a pretty picture.”
The UK has long felt secure due to its geographical position on the western edge of Europe, where the landmass serves as a natural buffer against external threats. However, this exercise has challenged long-held assumptions.
A threat that’s now very real. The simulation revealed the UK’s vulnerability to a large-scale, modern air attack similar to the one Russia executed against Ukraine. The Russian attack involved a devastating combination of missiles, drones, and autonomous technologies. Crawford emphasized that the conflict in Ukraine has awakened the entire West to these realities. It not only showcased the brutality of Russia’s early strikes but also demonstrated how modern warfare has changed the dynamics of air dominance.
Crawford explained that air superiority can no longer be defined as sustained control over a broad operational area. Instead, it can be transient and localized, occurring in fragmented spaces just a few feet above the ground or between two opposing trenches. The war in Ukraine represents an unprecedented battlefield. Both countries possess powerful integrated air defense systems, but neither has achieved complete control of the skies. This contrasts with the air doctrines that have prevailed in recent decades.
The emergence of swarms. Crawford also analyzed the extensive use of drones in Ukraine. He noted that these are no longer isolated devices. Rather, there are swarms of hundreds of drones. Some are armed with explosives, others serve as decoys, and some are designed for kamikaze missions.
Combined with rockets and intercontinental ballistic missiles, these swarms create a complex and simultaneous multi-faceted threat. According to Crawford, the tactical dilemma is clear: Should countries neutralize all potential vectors of attack, or prioritize the most lethal ones? This question lacks a definitive solution but poses a significant challenge for all Western air forces.
From strength to vulnerability. One of the most important messages from the UK simulation was the need to change the nation’s and its allies’ defensive mindset. For decades, modern wars have been fought far from home territory, leading to a misconception about domestic security.
Crawford emphasized the need to abandon the assumption that British bases are safe and instead recognize that they’re now under direct threat. In other words, the UK shouldn’t be viewed merely as a safe starting point for foreign operations. Rather, it should be seen as a potential target that needs preparation and defense.
According to Crawford’s assessment, the risk isn’t hypothetical. If Russia decided to launch an attack on British soil, it could do so via its Northern Fleet from the Atlantic, bypassing European airspace.
Redrawing doctrines. Addressing the simulation results also involves revising military doctrines that have remained unchallenged for generations. The concept of total air control has been a cornerstone of NATO strategy since the Gulf War. However, it appears to be diminishing in relevance due to a new generation of threats characterized by speed, volume, unpredictability, and autonomy.
For Crawford and many other strategists, the key lies in learning quickly, recognizing that the UK is no longer immune to threats. The country should rethink defense systems with the understanding that the next attack could occur “at home,” rather than in a distant country.
Images | Roberto Catarinicchia