While the Rest of Japan Shrinks, Tokyo Grows. This Phenomenon Has a Name: Ikkyoku Shūchū

Much of the world faces a demographic crisis in the short to medium term. Fertility rates in many countries are dismal, and birth rates have plummeted. Asian nations such as South Korea, China, and Taiwan are struggling with this problem. Japan is no exception.

As the country works to reach a birth rate that ensures generational replacement, businesses also face workforce shortages. Giants like McDonald’s have adjusted hiring policies, some companies have turned to robots, and even diaper manufacturers have shifted focus to adult diapers due to the lack of children.

While Japan deals with this, another issue has persisted for years—over-centralization in one city: Tokyo. This phenomenon has a name: ikkyoku shūchū.

Japan Is Dismantling Itself

Ikkyoku shūchū describes Japan’s extreme centralization. It’s not just about higher birth rates or immigration in one place—it’s about the rest of the country emptying out as people move to the city, which consolidates everything.

In Japan, that city is Tokyo. For decades, the metropolis has accumulated industry, administrative and political functions, tourism, and population. According to The Japan Times, while the rest of the country shrinks, Tokyo continues to grow. This has created a severe demographic imbalance. Surrounding areas have lost population, and so have other regions across the country.

The consequences are significant. First, economic disparity widens as everything concentrates in the capital. For residents, this translates into higher costs, overloaded transportation and public services, and limited teleworking opportunities.

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For rural areas, the problem is just as severe. Communities that lose people struggle to maintain essential services and fail to attract young workers. The government offers incentives for families to settle in these areas and have children.

Some success stories exist, but they also focus on encouraging family formation.

Plans to Combat Ikkyoku Shūchū

This phenomenon has devastated smaller villages, leaving some with more dolls than people. Due to dwindling services, some towns have taken action. Ina, for example, launched a telemedicine service using drones to deliver medicine to older adults.

Kamiyama, a town that lost 70% of its population, has successfully attracted businesses through high-speed internet development. Meanwhile, the government has begun identifying strategies to curb ikkyoku shūchū and promote decentralization. In January, officials unveiled an action plan to stimulate economic and social growth by redistributing government functions.

In addition, the so-called “Regional Revitalization 2.0” aims to strengthen regional economies and reduce excessive population concentration in Tokyo. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has said the goal is to help all people achieve happiness. The initiative builds on the 2016 Regional Revitalization Act, which encouraged industries and services to establish themselves outside Tokyo to draw people to other hubs.

It’s an ambitious goal for a future that looks uncertain. If current trends continue, Japan’s population—124 million in 2023—will shrink to 63 million by 2100, with a predominantly elderly demographic that could make the social security system unsustainable.

Image | Kvnga (Unsplash)

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