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Miguel Jorge
WriterJournalist. I've spent more than half of my life writing about technology, science, and culture. Before landing here, I worked at Telefónica, Prisa, Globus Comunicación, Hipertextual, and Gizmodo. I'm part of Webedia's cross-section team.
Karen Alfaro
WriterCommunications professional with a decade of experience as a copywriter, proofreader, and editor. As a travel and science journalist, I've collaborated with several print and digital outlets around the world. I'm passionate about culture, music, food, history, and innovative technologies.
Finally, China did what the global industry feared most: The Asian country blocked exports of the most valuable rare earth elements. That sounds like a lot, although many will wonder how far the veto goes or which supply chains will be affected in the short term by Beijing’s decision. Many sectors are on the ropes, but one is particularly sensitive for the U.S.: defense. If everything remains the same, it has only a few months left before its F-35 fighter jets or ballistic missiles are in serious trouble.
The Achilles’ heel. According to The New York Times, China’s decision to restrict the export of critical minerals—especially certain rare earth magnets—is a direct warning to U.S. national security, whose military capabilities depend heavily on these resources.
Air Force fighter jets like the F-35, Army-guided ballistic missiles, and Navy electric drones rely on these magnets—made from elements such as neodymium, dysprosium, and yttrium—for the operation of engines, guidance mechanisms, and emergency systems. Without the magnet component, a ballistic missile, for example, couldn’t reach its target.
The underlying problem. China produces 90% of these components and refines six of the key metals that make them. This industry gives Beijing a powerful lobbying tool. One Air Force official described this maneuver as a “warning shot” that could escalate into quotas, tariffs and even an outright ban—immediately impacting the cost and availability of U.S. warfighting technologies.
A fragile chain. Rare earth elements—a group of 17 elements—aren’t scarce per se, but they’re costly and polluting to process. For this reason, China has mastered both their extraction and the associated refining and manufacturing. This superiority has allowed it to control much of the final cost of modern U.S. weapons, including stealth fighters, submarines, warships, tanks, missiles and laser systems.
To give you an idea: An F-35 contains about 880 pounds of rare earth materials, while some submarines contain more than 8,800 pounds. Although the U.S. defense industry and the Pentagon have amassed strategic stockpiles of these elements, analysts warn that such stockpiles would barely cover a few months of production and maintenance—let alone years. Hence Washington’s renewed focus on the bottom of the Pacific.
Future warnings. The U.S. has known about this dependence and what could happen for several years. One emblematic case was the so-called “F-35 magnet debacle,” when in 2022 the Department of Defense temporarily suspended delivery of the aircraft after discovering a component contained an alloy manufactured in China—violating defense procurement rules.
Although the U.S. didn’t consider the material a direct threat at the time, the incident highlighted the country’s deep dependence. With Chinese exporters now required to obtain special permits before shipping rare earth elements to the U.S., experts expect a price spike that will affect the entire defense industrial base. The Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine in California has reopened, but its production is far from competitive with China’s capacity.
Historical precedents. History offers examples of how the U.S. has adapted to wartime disruptions in the supply of strategic materials. During World War II, Germany sank Allied freighters carrying bauxite from Suriname. In response, Washington turned to domestic reserves in Arkansas to ensure airplane production.
Today, according to The Times, the American Enterprise Institute insists that current reserves are insufficient to sustain the military-industrial complex in the face of a prolonged Chinese supply disruption. Despite efforts by President Donald Trump and former President Joe Biden to revive domestic production of critical minerals, the industry remains highly vulnerable to Beijing’s decisions.
A critical trade-off. There’s a broader backdrop to the trade war. China’s control over the supply of rare earth elements isn’t just a logistical or economic vulnerability—it represents a major geostrategic challenge to the technological superiority the U.S. has long claimed in the military realm. While the latest move of China doesn’t completely shut down trade routes, it makes clear that Beijing holds a formidable lever over the U.S. defense industry.
In light of this, analysts agree that Washington must accelerate efforts to diversify its sources of supply, rebuild domestic industrial capabilities and ensure the resilience of a supply chain that underpins much of its global power. Otherwise, the next crisis may not be limited to this “warning shot.” It could directly strike the technological backbone of national defense.
Image | Soly Moses
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