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A Shortage of Rice Causes a 30% Price Increase in Japan, Surpassing Concerns About Birth Rates and Tourism

The cost of rice used in restaurants has also surged by 30-40%.

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In Japan, rice has become more than just a staple of the nation’s diet and the foundation of popular dishes like nigiri and maki. For the past few months, the Asian country has been facing a significant challenge due to its lowest grain stock in 20 years. This has led to price increases of 20%, 30%, and even 40% compared to 2023.

What was once a delicious ingredient has now become a bitter problem.

A rice crisis. Japan is currently experiencing a rice crisis, which is impacting sushi lovers and anyone who enjoys rice-based dishes.

A combination of factors has led to a shortage of rice and rising prices. These include Japanese politics, extreme heat affecting harvests, panic buying due to the threat of a “megaquake,” and a surge in tourism.

As a result of the rice scarcity and soaring prices, some stores have even started limiting purchases to one package per day.

How much has the price of rice increased? The data released by Nikkei is quite striking. It shows that the price of rice used by restaurants in Japan has increased significantly, by 30 to 40%, compared to a year ago. Experts attribute this increase to the crisis and the efforts of companies to maintain a stable rice supply.

For example, JA Group, a conglomerate of regional cooperatives in Japan, has set the price of a 60-kilo bag of a commonly used rice variety at ¥15,000 ($105), which is 39% higher than last year. Another popular variety of rice, commonly used in restaurants and rice-based convenience foods, has also seen a price increase of 38%, with its sacks now costing around ¥16,500 yen ($115).

More data. Although the data may vary, all sources point to a rise in grain prices. Citing data from the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Japanese Kyodo news agency states that, in August, rice prices rose by 28.3% compared to the same month last year. This increase and other factors, such as the cost of other foods or energy, explain the country’s Consumer Price Index rise. Other sources indicate that packages sold in stores rose by 23%, going from ¥1,839 ($13) for five kilos in 2023 to ¥2,266 ($16).

The scenario isn’t entirely new. In July, the price of rice was already at its highest level in 11 years. Overall, Nikkei estimates that rice varieties for household use have become 10-30% more expensive compared to 2023.

“Any price.” This quote comes from a JA Group employee, who recently claimed that, in its efforts to secure a stable supply of rice amid the crisis, one company even offered to “pay any price” as long as it was guaranteed the amount it needed for its business.

As such, Japan is seeing operators paying much more than they did a year ago in exchange for shielding their stock, while stores and restaurants are forced to raise prices. The cost of a portion of curry rice, a popular and affordable food in Japan, is estimated to have reached ¥342 ($2.4) in the summer, the highest in almost a decade and about ¥44 ($0.30) more than a year earlier. The reason: rising vegetable prices and a shortage of rice.

“The rice had already sold out.” A resident of Chiba prefecture, just outside Tokyo, recently told the outlet China Daily that they became aware of the country’s rice crisis in August when they found the shelves empty. “When I went to the supermarket, the rice had already sold out. The only rice left was foreign brands. We’ve started eating more noodles,” they said. Another Ibaraki resident complained about the rising price of rice, stating, “Rice prices have been gradually increasing.”

These complaints are in line with the analysis of experts and organizations, like the Department of Agriculture, which have been investigating the causes of the crisis in recent months. Recently, the USDA warned that stocks had reached “their lowest levels in over 20 years.”

A complex phenomenon. The rice crisis can only be understood by considering a combination of factors. As mentioned earlier, these factors include the impact of heat on harvests, “panic buying,” and an increase in demand driven by record levels of tourism.

However, according to experts like Kazuhito Yamashita, a Canon Institute for Global Studies researcher, the main determining factor is “the acreage reduction policy which decreases the amount of land devoted to cultivation.”

Image | Markus Winkler

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