Russia Is Building Up Troops on Its Border With Europe

In April, while Finland once again ranked as the “happiest” country on the planet, a U.S. Army unit arrived at its borders to prepare for the worst. That marked the start of a simulation in which the Finnish Defense Forces and a Washington operative trained together for a possible invasion. If any doubt remained about the adversary, Russia had just removed it.

Silent rearmament. Although much of the international focus remains on the war in Ukraine, Europe has begun to worry about a series of strategic moves by the Russian army that are quietly redefining the continent’s military balance. According to The Wall Street Journal, based on satellite data it obtained, in the Russian city of Petrozavodsk, about 100 miles from the Finnish border, military engineers are expanding bases and building a new headquarters expected to house tens of thousands of troops in the coming years—many of whom are currently fighting in Ukraine.

Western intelligence sources say these troops aren’t intended for the current war but for future confrontations with NATO. Moscow has stepped up recruitment, modernized rail infrastructure near the border, and doubled its military budget, now above 6% of GDP. Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered the armed forces to grow to 1.5 million troops. Although he publicly denies expansionist ambitions, his government sends mixed signals, including statements about preparing for possible conflict with the Atlantic alliance.

Rejuvenate the army. The surge in military spending has sparked an unprecedented acceleration in arms production. Before the invasion of Ukraine, Russia built about 40 T-90M tanks a year. It now produces nearly 300. Many remain in Russia, reserved for future deployment. Artillery and ammunition output has also increased, and Russian drones continue to improve in both quality and quantity.

Far from collapsing, Moscow’s army is reconfiguring faster than many analysts expected, with new units, updated gear, and troop rotations that sustain pressure in Ukraine. Meanwhile, other formations train on Russian soil. Some European intelligence agencies warn of a Plan B scenario: If Ukraine reaches a cease-fire, Russia could be capable of launching a full-scale war in Europe within five years—or sooner—if it perceives weakness in NATO’s unity.

Tensions on the eastern flank. Russia’s military buildup has triggered immediate responses in the Baltic states and Poland, which are reinforcing their borders with trenches, landmines, and anti-tank obstacles. Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland have renounced international treaties on landmines. Several governments believe Russia might test NATO’s strength by staging a limited incursion into a member state with a Russian-speaking population, such as Estonia.

At the same time, concerns grow over covert operations attributed to Russian intelligence, including sabotage and assassinations in Western Europe. As a result, many analysts warn the Kremlin could provoke a minor crisis to undermine NATO unity—especially if it senses internal division or a lack of coordinated response.

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Territorial strategy. According to The Journal, Putin has invoked Russia’s historic military victories—over Napoleon and Hitler—to justify the war in Ukraine and his ambition to reclaim influence over former allies that turned westward. Russia has reorganized its internal military structure, creating new districts around Moscow and St. Petersburg, while increasing logistical cooperation with Belarus, its closest ally and a major operational base.

In the Leningrad Military District, which borders Estonia, Latvia, and Finland, medium-sized brigades are transforming into divisions of up to 10,000 troops. Crews are building barracks, hospitals, warehouses, and rail lines that stretch toward Norway, Finland, and south of St. Petersburg. Finland, which long avoided conflict with Russia but is now part of NATO, is closely monitoring the renovation of old border crossings and the construction of railheads that could allow mechanized forces to move quickly—an immediate national security concern.

New social elite. A key pillar of this military expansion is recruitment, driven by financial incentives that sometimes exceed $20,000 per contract. These sums, far above the average income in many Russian regions, have created a steady flow of new soldiers—estimated at 30,000 to 40,000 per month. This allows Russia to maintain its presence in Ukraine without depleting its strategic reserves.

Veterans also receive extended benefits, including government positions and parliamentary seats, turning the military into a new national elite. Recruits are primarily assigned to NATO-bordering units, while newer weapons are held back from Ukraine for these forces. The Ukrainian front continues to receive updated Soviet-era equipment.

Russia’s upcoming strategic military exercises, dubbed Zapad, will focus on these border regions. They’re expected to serve as a show of force aimed at both NATO and Russia’s domestic audience.

New power architecture. In short, Russia is betting that its military resurgence—combined with potential Western fatigue over Ukraine—will bring it back to the table where new rules for European security are set. Politics like former President Donald Trump may dismiss the idea that Russia has ambitions beyond Ukraine, but facts on the ground and warnings from European intelligence suggest otherwise.

Moscow appears confident that a divided, disorganized, or distracted NATO will eventually have to negotiate from a weaker position. With history as its constant justification, the Kremlin is preparing for a future where diplomacy again takes a back seat to force—and where routes, troops, and deterrence serve as the real currency in European geopolitics.

Image | NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization

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