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After the first 100 days of President Donald Trump’s second term marked by a tariff war, aggressive immigration policies, and distancing from allies such as Canada and the EU, U.S. tourism is facing turbulence. A new report from the London-based World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) predicts that distrust among foreign travelers will cost the country about $12.5 billion.
The figure comes with a message: “This is a wake-up call to the U.S. government,” the WTTC warns.
What happened? The WTTC, a forum representing the private tourism industry, has just undercut expectations in the U.S. sector. The reason is simple: According to its forecasts, travel agencies, hotels, restaurants, and other tourism-dependent businesses will earn significantly less from foreign travelers this year.
To be precise, the WTTC projects a loss of roughly $12.5 billion in foreign visitor spending—a “staggering sum,” as the group puts it.
Where does the figure come from? The organization doesn’t explain how it calculated the estimate but offers context. According to its data, international visitors spent about $181 billion in the U.S. in 2024. If forecasts hold, that number will drop to “just under $169 billion” in 2025. The forecast could change if the conditions driving the decline improve. But for now, it paints a grim picture: a nearly 7% year-over-year decline and continued distance from pre-pandemic benchmarks.
In 2019, international visitors generated nearly $217.4 billion in revenue, helping create jobs across the country. “Today, that legacy is under threat,” the WTTC warns.
Why it matters. Tourism is a major part of the U.S. economy. The country is one of the world’s top destinations. Last year, the Commerce Department estimated that the U.S. welcomed 72.4 million international visitors. Travel and tourism contributed $2.36 trillion to the national economy and supported more than 20 million jobs. The federal government also benefits from the industry’s tax revenue.
Still, almost 90% of tourism spending comes from domestic travelers, not international ones. For the WTTC, that’s a problem: “This heavy reliance on homegrown tourism is masking a serious vulnerability; the international market is where the real growth lies, and the U.S. is losing its crown.”
Contradictory forecasts. The WTTC outlook diverges sharply from projections by the U.S. National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO), which expected international visitors to the U.S. to increase by 6.5% between 2024 and 2025, reaching 77.1 million. The NTTO forecast 85 million visitors by 2026 and $279 billion in international tourism spending by 2027—far above the WTTC’s estimate for this year.
Not just projections. The WTTC study cites March data from the U.S. Department of Commerce showing a decline in international tourist arrivals. Visitor numbers dropped 15% from the UK, more than 28% from Germany, nearly 15% from South Korea, and between 24% and 33% from key markets like Colombia and Spain.
“As widely expected, the Canadian market is drying up, with early summer bookings down over 20% compared to last year,” the WTTC added. In general, the U.S. is receiving fewer visitors from both neighboring and distant countries—“a clear indicator that the global appeal of the U.S. is slipping.” The WTTC noted the U.S. is the only one of 184 destinations it analyzed to face a downward forecast in the 2025 fiscal year.
What’s driving the trend? According to The New York Times, travel spending in the U.S. remained below pre-pandemic levels in 2024, largely due to the strong dollar, which raises costs for foreign visitors. Today, the WTTC says the issue stems from both currency pressures and the geopolitical climate.
“The world’s biggest Travel & Tourism economy is heading in the wrong direction, not because of a lack of demand, but because of a failure to act,” WTTC CEO Julia Simpson said. “While other nations are rolling out the welcome mat, the U.S. government is putting up the ‘closed’ sign.”
She added: “Without urgent action to restore international traveller confidence, it could take several years for the U.S. just to return to pre-pandemic levels of international visitor spend, not even the peak from 10 years ago.”
Not a surprise. The decline has been brewing. The tariff war, diplomatic disputes with Denmark, Canada, and Mexico, and—above all—border detentions and visa backlogs have long discouraged foreign travel to the U.S. There’s talk of a broader boycott that could extend to American industry and commerce.
In March, the U.S. International Trade Administration reported that the number of European visitors staying at least one night in the country had fallen 17% compared to the previous year. While this could partly be explained by the timing of Easter—March in 2024, April in 2025—other signs reinforce the trend.
The Financial Times recently published data showing a drop in U.S.-bound travel from Australia, Norway, the UK, and Switzerland. French hotel group Accor SA reported that European bookings to the U.S. this summer have plummeted by nearly 25%.
Image | Jenny Marvin (Unsplash)
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