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Miguel Jorge
WriterJournalist. I've spent more than half of my life writing about technology, science, and culture. Before landing here, I worked at Telefónica, Prisa, Globus Comunicación, Hipertextual, and Gizmodo. I'm part of Webedia's cross-section team.
Alba Mora
WriterAn established tech journalist, I entered the world of consumer tech by chance in 2018. In my writing and translating career, I've also covered a diverse range of topics, including entertainment, travel, science, and the economy.
Europe has recently been discussing several plans to send military aid to Ukraine. Proposals include deploying 120 fighter jets and even rearming European nations after years of prioritizing “peace.” This situation highlights the extent of the continent’s reliance on U.S. military resources and intelligence. However, the problem is Washington isn’t only considering pausing aid. It could also render the supplied artillery inoperable.
The issue of dependency. The abrupt withdrawal of U.S. military support for Ukraine has raised the alarm among its European allies. They’re beginning to question their heavy reliance on U.S. weapons, software, and maintenance. Europe is also reconsidering how far this dependence goes.
The Financial Times recently reported that the current situation is similar to what happened in Afghanistan in 2021. During that crisis, the U.S. withdrawal rendered the Afghan army’s Black Hawk helicopters useless, leading to the swift collapse of Kabul. President Donald Trump is now redefining foreign policy to adopt a more conciliatory approach toward Russia. As a result, European countries that have built their defense strategies around U.S. military technology may face a structural vulnerability. This could compromise their long-term security.
The “kill switch.” For a long time, there’s been discussion about the so-called “kill switches” capable of disabling military technology used in today’s conflicts. One major concern in Europe is the possibility that the U.S. could remotely disable advanced military systems through software, many of which have already been sent to Ukraine. For example, equipment requiring remote updates could become inoperable if the necessary data doesn’t arrive.
Although there’s no conclusive evidence, expert analyst Richard Aboulafia told the Financial Times, “If you postulate the existence of something that can be done with a little bit of software code, it exists.” However, European dependence on the U.S. extends beyond the potential for a “kill switch.” Without spare parts, software updates, and logistical support, many weapons may already be rendered inoperable within weeks.
The level of dependency. Historically, European military dependence on the U.S. has increased significantly in recent years. Between 2019 and 2023, 55% of European defense imports came from Washington. That’s up from 35% in the previous five-year period, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
In light of this, former British defense secretary Ben Wallace warned that his priority would be to assess Europe’s military dependencies if he were still in office. He added that he would also determine whether a strategic shift is needed to reduce vulnerability to decisions made in Washington.
The F-35 example. The F-35 fighter jet is often considered the world’s most advanced combat aircraft, but it also highlights Europe’s vulnerability in defense matters. The aircraft relies heavily on U.S. logistics support, which includes software updates, mission planning, and access to threat databases through the Autonomic Logistics Information System. This system is currently being replaced by the Operational Data Integrated Network software. Although Europe physically owns the F-35, it may become obsolete if the U.S. decides to restrict access to this essential support.
Nations in trouble. Countries like Denmark, which has considered deploying F-35s to Greenland, may encounter a critical problem. If the U.S. withdraws access to the support infrastructure, these aircraft would become inoperable. Even prior to the Trump administration, the United Kingdom–one of the F-35’s major purchasers–sought “operational sovereignty” over its fleet, achieving some concessions in 2006.
Currently, no ally has access to the system’s source code, which allows Washington to maintain complete control. Switzerland has attempted to reassure its citizens that its F-35 fleet can operate “autonomously.” However, it’s also acknowledged that no Western fighter can function fully without U.S. secure communication and satellite navigation systems.
The UK’s nuclear weapon. The country’s nuclear deterrent system is closely linked to the U.S. The UK’s strategic submarines utilize Trident ballistic missiles, which are leased from Washington and require regular maintenance at the naval base in King’s Bay, Georgia.
Though analysts consider it unlikely that the U.S. would cut off maintenance for Trident, analyst Nick Cunningham argues that this remains a “critical point of vulnerability for the UK.” Some experts suggest that London should consider alternatives, such as the French M51 missiles, especially since France and the UK are the only nuclear powers in Europe.
Intelligence and surveillance. The extent of U.S. power goes even further. Much of Europe’s intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities rely on collaboration with the U.S. Countries such as the United Kingdom, Norway, and Germany utilize U.S. spy planes and drones, which require authorization from Washington to be armed or deployed on offensive missions.
For instance, Italy and France faced a lengthy approval process to equip their Reaper drones with missiles, illustrating how the U.S. retains control over its allies’ weaponry. Additionally, there’s a considerable concern in Europe regarding the potential loss of individual systems and the fear that the U.S. might withdraw logistical support and intelligence sharing during a conflict. This withdrawal could impact the operability of key assets such as fighters, Chinook and Apache helicopters, and air defense systems like the Patriots.
The start of a rift within the Western alliance. Growing distrust regarding the reliability of the U.S. as a strategic partner could have severe implications for the American defense industry. For decades, Washington has leveraged the promise of military protection and cooperation to secure arms sales. However, the recent decision to withdraw support for Ukraine has raised doubts about the sustainability of that promise.
Evidence already supports this concern. Shares of major U.S. defense companies have declined, while European manufacturers have experienced significant growth following Trump’s reelection. While no contracts have been canceled yet, Europe is expected to start diversifying its suppliers and bolstering its own defense industry.
Although U.S.-European relations are unlikely to vanish immediately, recent developments suggest that Europe may need to diversify its security arrangements and reduce its dependence on Washington. This shift could represent a significant turning point in the balance of power within NATO.
Image | RawPixel
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